In a recent post, we used demographic data and prior election results from Virginia and South Carolina to predict North Carolina’s primary election. Like most predictions, we got some right, and some very wrong. In this post, we review why we were right on some things and wrong on others. In doing so, we hope to show how election trends—including Trump’s and Clinton’s consistent areas of strength, and how establishment Republican support for Cruz—played out in North Carolina.
Income Mixing and Inequality in North Carolina’s Triad
North Carolina’s Triad region—including the cities of Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and High Point—is the third-largest metro area in the state. Compared to the Triangle and Charlotte, however, the Triad hasn’t experienced such rapid population growth, and its population is less wealthy. Despite this, one-quarter of the Triad’s residents pay a disproportionate share of their income toward housing, and affordable housing has been an important election topic in Greensboro.
Charlotte Income Mixing and Inequality
As the largest city in North Carolina, the Charlotte metro area stretches across 13 counties in two states. As the metro’s population has grown substantially over the past few decades, so have affordable housing pressures: HUD estimates that Charlotte needs 34,000 affordable housing units to meet demand, and over 32,000 households recently applied for the Charlotte Housing Authority’s Section 8 program.
Projecting North Carolina’s Primary Results
Today, North Carolina will hold its Democratic and Republican primary elections. Unlike other states voting today—like Florida and Ohio—North Carolina is not a “winner-take-all” state, and will award its delegates proportionately among candidates. Polls show Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton with strong leads in the Tar Heel state. Using demographics to project the election, we also find that Trump and Clinton will be the top vote-getters in the North Carolina primary.
Income Mixing and Inequality in the Research Triangle
The greater Triangle area—including the cities of Raleigh and Durham—is one of the fastest-growing metros in the county. Raleigh’s population increased 48% between 2000 and 2012, making it the fastest-growing city in the U.S. over that time. Affordable housing pressures have come with such strong population growth, and affordability was recently a campaign issue in both Raleigh and Chapel Hill. As the Triangle continues to grow, policy-makers, planners, and developers must work to ensure that its neighborhoods remain economically and socially integrated.
Measuring Income Mixing and Inequality in North Carolina
The Center for Urban & Regional Studies at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill is thrilled to announce the launch of our new blog, Urban 2 Point 0. Focusing on urban issues relevant to North Carolina and beyond, Urban 2 Point 0 will present easily digestible data analysis complemented by infographics, maps, and other visuals. In our first series of posts, we’ll look at income mixing across neighborhoods in North Carolina’s three largest metro areas: Charlotte, the Triangle (Raleigh-Durham), and the Triad (Greensboro and Winston-Salem). We hope to show not only the level of mixing within each metro, but also income inequality across neighborhoods—that is, where poor or wealthy households are concentrated.
North Carolina is home to some of the fastest-growing cities in the nation (click image below for link to interactive map). Between 2000 and 2012, the Raleigh metro area grew faster than any large city, while Charlotte was close behind, ranking 5th. Largely due to its growing cities, North Carolina’s population exceeded the 10 million mark in 2015.