North Carolina Primary Elections: Comparing our Projections to Results

In a recent post, we used demographic data and prior election results from Virginia and South Carolina to predict North Carolina’s primary election. Like most predictions, we got some right, and some very wrong. In this post, we review why we were right on some things and wrong on others. In doing so, we hope to show how election trends—including Trump’s and Clinton’s consistent areas of strength, and how establishment Republican support for Cruz—played out in North Carolina.


Ted Cruz exceeded our predictions in the Triangle and in eastern North Carolina.

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Projecting North Carolina’s Primary Results

Today, North Carolina will hold its Democratic and Republican primary elections.  Unlike other states voting today—like Florida and Ohio—North Carolina is not a “winner-take-all” state, and will award its delegates proportionately among candidates.  Polls show Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton with strong leads in the Tar Heel state.  Using demographics to project the election, we also find that Trump and Clinton will be the top vote-getters in the North Carolina primary.

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