North Carolina Primary Elections: Comparing our Projections to Results

In a recent post, we used demographic data and prior election results from Virginia and South Carolina to predict North Carolina’s primary election. Like most predictions, we got some right, and some very wrong. In this post, we review why we were right on some things and wrong on others. In doing so, we hope to show how election trends—including Trump’s and Clinton’s consistent areas of strength, and how establishment Republican support for Cruz—played out in North Carolina.


Ted Cruz exceeded our predictions in the Triangle and in eastern North Carolina.

Continue reading